On the outskirts of Haripur, a city just 20 miles north of Islamabad, stands one of the largest refugee complexes in Pakistan, housing around two hundred thousand Afghans.  This sprawling settlement serves as home to those who fled Afghanistan in the wake of the Soviet Invasion and, more recently, after the Taliban’s takeover in 2021, which forced six hundred thousand more Afghans into Pakistan. This exodus represents one of the largest forced displacement crises in modern South Asian history. Among them is Dr Ahmad Masoud, 39 years of age, who lives in the settlement with his seven children—six daughters and one son. Masoud’s father migrated to Pakistan after the Red Army stormed Kabul and assassinated President Hafizullah Amin in 1979. Born and raised in Pakistan, Masoud completed his medical degrees with distinction and obtained a practicing license.  His journey epitomizes the complex reality of second-generation Afghan refugees—those who know no other home but Pakistan.

This situation is part of Pakistan's ongoing campaign to deport hundreds of thousands of Afghan refugees. Since April 1, 2025, Pakistan has accelerated deportations, with the United Nations reporting at least 8,906 Afghan nationals deported in just the first week of April. Over 813,000 Afghans have been forced to return to Afghanistan between October 2023 and January 2025, creating a humanitarian crisis. Many of those being deported, like Dr. Masoud, were born in Pakistan or have spent decades there, considering it their only home. 

From Sanctuary to Expulsion

According to a government notification dated March 7, the Interior Ministry of Pakistan urged all "illegal foreigners" and Afghan Citizen Card holders to "leave Pakistan voluntarily before March 31, 2025" or face deportation starting April 1st. This decisive action came immediately following the deadly Bannu Cantonment attack on March 4, 2025, when 16 militants and 4 suicide bombers stormed the military compound.  In an official statement, the Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR)– the media wing of Pakistan Armed Forces– referred to intelligence reports that “unequivocally” confirmed the involvement of Afghan nationals, and that the attack was orchestrated and directed by “Khawarij” leaders operating from Afghanistan.

The timing of this deportation order aligns with escalating tensions between the two countries. Days before the Bannu Cantonment attack, Afghan border security forces exchanged heavy fire with Pakistan’s military along the Torkham border crossing when the latter obstructed the construction of check posts. This led to the border's closure for weeks, significantly affecting businesses and movement on both sides. Pakistan, which is not a signatory to the Refugee Convention, has maintained that its deportation policies target all "illegal foreign nationals" regardless of nationality. Despite pleas from international organizations including the UN, Human Rights Watch, and Amnesty International, Pakistani officials have remained firm in their stance on deportations. According to UN estimates, Pakistan hosts approximately 3.2 million Afghan refugees and Afghans of other statuses, with 76% being women and children. 

Diplomatic Deadlock: Taliban-Pakistan Relations

Islamabad harbors deep frustration toward the Afghan Taliban for providing safe havens to TTP commanders in Paktika and other Afghan provinces bordering Pakistan’s tribal areas, as well as for constructing illegal border posts on Pakistani soil. The Pakistani government believes Kabul is biting the hand that feeds it by failing to apprehend and extradite key militant leaders, thereby becoming complicit in cross-border terrorism. In retaliation, Islamabad launched airstrikes inside Afghanistan last year following a surge in attacks by the Pakistani Taliban. In both 2022 and 2024, several high-profile TTP commanders were killed in Afghanistan, undermining the Afghan Taliban’s plausible deniability. This perception of betrayal is particularly bitter given Pakistan's historical role in supporting the Taliban's rise to power and providing diplomatic cover during their years in exile.

Recent United Nations assessments have also reported that the Afghan Taliban continue to provide sanctuary and logistical support to various Pakistani militant groups, ranging from religious extremists to ethno-separatists. Kabul has repeatedly denied these allegations—even in the wake of the recent Jaffar Express attack, in which hundreds of passengers were taken hostage. What began as ideological solidarity between the Afghan and Pakistani Taliban has evolved into a complex web of strategic interests, with Pakistani civilians and refugees caught in the middle. The Afghan Taliban have intermittently attempted to mediate between Islamabad and the TTP, most notably in June 2022 when they coordinated peace talks that led to a brief ceasefire. However, the negotiations quickly collapsed due to the TTP’s intransigent demands—including the restoration of the semi-autonomous status of the former tribal areas (which would require a constitutional amendment), and the withdrawal of Pakistan’s military from border regions with Afghanistan.

These diplomatic failures have only deepened Pakistan’s distrust of the Afghan Taliban, reinforcing the perception in Islamabad that Kabul is either unwilling or unable to rein in anti-Pakistan militants. This breakdown in bilateral trust continues to fuel Pakistan’s aggressive border policies and punitive responses toward Afghan refugees within its territory.

Afghan Refugees as Pawns in Security Politics

Afghan refugees are often caught in the crosshairs of Islamabad’s punitive policies following terrorist attacks in Pakistan. A turning point came after the TTP’s  2014 Army Public School attack in Peshawar, in which 132 children were killed. In the aftermath, Pakistani intelligence led to the arrest of dozens of suspects in Afghanistan. Simultaneously, law enforcement agencies in Pakistan began detaining and harassing ordinary Afghans—setting a troubling precedent for scapegoating refugees in times of crisis.

With limited leverage over the Afghan Taliban, Pakistan has increasingly viewed its refugee population as a proxy pressure point. Yet Kabul remains ill-equipped to absorb mass returns, unable to provide shelter, food, or jobs for millions of deportees. Currently, Pakistan hosts around 3 million Afghans: approximately 1.5 million hold UNHCR Proof of Registration (PoR) cards, while another 800,000 possess Afghan Citizen Cards.  The latest crackdown follows a sharp increase in attacks against Pakistani security forces in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan, pushing Pakistan to second place on the Global Terrorism Index 2025.

As the March 31 deadline passed, police rounded up hundreds of Afghan refugees in Islamabad and Rawalpindi, relocating them to nearby camps under heavy surveillance. Their phones have been confiscated, journalists barred from access, and monitoring intensified. Nearly 60,000 Afghans have been forcibly returned to Afghanistan between April 1 and April 13, 2025. Fearing arrest, thousands have fled to KPK, seeking shelter with extended family. Unlike other provinces, KPK has seen less public hostility toward Afghan refugees. The province’s Chief Minister has openly opposed the federal government’s blanket deportation order, calling instead for a humane, phased repatriation. International watchdogs have echoed this call. Human Rights Watch has criticized the government's approach for its speed and disregard for basic rights, warning that deportations expose refugees to violence, economic ruin, and a return to life under the Taliban’s restrictive rule—especially for women and girls. Among those most affected is Dr. Ahmad, a medical professional who fears what awaits his daughters if they are forced to return.

Afghan entrepreneurs are also sounding the alarm about what mass expulsions will mean for Pakistan’s economy. As Syed Naqi, chairman of United Afghan Traders Alliance, said:

The gendered impact of these deportations is particularly severe—sending women and children back to a regime that has systematically dismantled their basic rights to education, employment, and public participation. NGO leaders working with Afghan children in KPK emphasize the long-term consequences of halting their education and uprooting stable lives. As  Younas Awan, Executive Director of the Human Rights Protection and Development Council, said:  

Balancing Security and Humanity: A Path Forward 

The crisis facing Afghan refugees in Pakistan is shaped by a volatile mix of regional insecurity, diplomatic breakdown, and domestic politics. Islamabad’s deportation campaign— framed as a national security measure—has deeply personal consequences for refugees like Dr. Ahmad Masoud, who have lived and worked in Pakistan for decades. The surge in expulsions reflects a long-standing pattern: volatile security dynamics can be especially harmful for vulnerable refugee populations. This dynamic is exacerbated by Pakistan’s frustration with the Afghan Taliban, whose failure to rein in the TTP has led to retaliatory airstrikes and a collapse in peace efforts. While federal policy remains uncompromising, local leaders have called for humane, phased repatriation. Meanwhile, international rights organizations and Afghan business leaders warn of devastating humanitarian, educational, and economic consequences if these deportations continue unchecked.

Moving forward, Pakistan needs a dual-track approach—one that addresses its legitimate security concerns without compromising the dignity and rights of millions of Afghan refugees. Islamabad must press Kabul to dismantle TTP safe havens, but it must also respect its international obligations. This includes upholding the principle of non-refoulement – a core principle of international refugee law that prohibits a country from returning asylum seekers or refugees to a country where they are likely to face persecution, torture, or other serious harm. For decades, Afghan refugees have contributed to Pakistan's economy, culture, and society—their forced return represents not just a humanitarian crisis, but the erasure of intergenerational communities with deep roots in Pakistan. Efforts must be made to offer legal pathways to residency for Afghans who have spent their lives in Pakistan. International agencies such as UNHCR and IOM should assist in implementing a phased, voluntary repatriation process, while helping to manage asylum claims and ensuring that returns are safe and dignified.

This Durand Dispatch Post is sponsored by the Morning Brew!

Come for the news, stay for the laughs

Morning Brew isn’t just any newsletter—it’s your free shortcut to business news that actually matters. Fast, fun, and—dare we say—enjoyable.

No fluff, no jargon, and it takes less time to read than it does to brew your coffee (unless you’ve got a Keurig—then you might get to enjoy your Morning Brew with your actual brew).

Join over 4 million professionals who read it daily. Delivered bright and early, it’s news on your time—whether you read it when you wake up, over lunch, or before bed.

Try Morning Brew for free