Editor’s Note

Welcome to Durand Dispatch: Perspectives, our monthly newsletter offering insights into security and militancy trends across South and Central Asia—with a special focus on the Afghanistan-Pakistan region. Brought to you by a team of academics, security professionals, local journalists, and student researchers, this Dispatch brings you timely analysis informed by open-source intelligence, ground reporting, and expert insight. 

Militant Sophistication Meets State Fragmentation
Pakistan's internal security landscape deteriorated further in July 2025, marked by coordinated attacks from the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), Baloch militants, and affiliated groups. The Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) and the Baloch Liberation Front (BLF) escalated their campaigns, launching precision attacks on military convoys, derailing trains, and executing civilians based on ethnic identity. In Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) unveiled new drone warfare capabilities, challenging state control in key tribal areas. While total attack numbers declined, insurgent tactics shifted toward high-impact, coordinated assaults designed to erode military dominance and stoke ethnic divisions

Militarization and the Repression of Civil Society
Pakistan’s counterterrorism posture increasingly targets civil actors and peaceful dissent. The enforced disappearance of poet and activist Gulzar Dost, the detention of Dr. Mahrang Baloch and the Baloch Yakjehti Committee (BYC), and the conviction of Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) politicians reflect a dangerous trend: the securitization of civic space. Students, tribal elders, and peaceful protesters across Waziristan and Balochistan are being framed as security threats. In response, local jirgas and tribal mobilizations are reasserting alternative visions of governance—demanding accountability, rejecting militarization, and calling for political inclusion. These resistance efforts, rooted in traditional authority structures, represent a growing rejection of both militant and state violence.

Strategic Realignments and Multipolar Maneuvering
Islamabad pursued a high-stakes balancing act in its foreign policy. The Trump administration’s approval of a trade deal, potential arms sales, and the announcement of a forthcoming U.S.-Pakistan Counterterrorism Dialogue marked a warming of ties, while Pakistan simultaneously expanded cooperation with China, Russia, Iran, and the Gulf states. Islamabad’s July presidency of the United Nations Security Council was leveraged to spotlight multilateralism and regional integration. But Pakistan’s renewed lobbying efforts in Washington—backed by Trump allies—and the deepening U.S.–India rift over sanctions and Kashmir, signal a more transactional and less predictable phase in South Asia’s strategic environment.

Afghanistan: Between Engagement and Border Escalation
Pakistan’s relationship with the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan remains defined by contradiction. Despite the Taliban’s de facto government agreeing to relocate elements of the TTP from border areas and to investigate militant activity, clashes along the Durand Line escalated, including deadly mortar attacks. Diplomatic overtures—such as the elevation of missions to ambassadorial status and the signing of a Preferential Trade Agreement—were undercut by cross-border violence, recurring closures at Ghulam Khan and Baramcha, and unresolved sovereignty disputes. Taliban leaders, meanwhile, continued to resist international human rights demands, rejecting both United Nations and International Criminal Court (ICC) efforts to enforce accountability.

Aid Fatigue and Refugee Abandonment
Afghanistan's humanitarian crisis is deepening amid mass returns and declining international support. Over 1.4 million Afghan refugees have returned in 2025 alone—many from Iran and Pakistan—overwhelming the Taliban’s capacity to provide basic services. The United Kingdom abruptly ended both the Afghan Relocations and Assistance Policy (ARAP) and the Afghan Citizens Resettlement Scheme (ACRS), while the United States revoked Temporary Protected Status (TPS) for nearly 12,000 Afghans. As returnees face destitution, displacement, and gender-based violence, the risk of extremist recruitment rises, especially in border areas where desperation is growing.

Europe Confronts Transnational Extremism
European security services grappled with sophisticated Islamic State Khorasan networks exploiting diaspora communities and digital platforms. Spain expelled Salafist imams from Catalonia—where one-third of mosques reportedly embrace Salafism—while the Netherlands sentenced a Tajik ISKP recruiter to 5.5 years. Uzbekistan's dismantling of an ISKP cell led by a 19-year-old woman radicalized in Turkey and operating through multiple Telegram channels demonstrates the convergence of gender, technology, and ideological mobilization.

Looking Ahead: Tactical Gains, Strategic Incoherence
The July-August period reveals a region caught between competing trajectories. Pakistan's diplomatic victories—securing favorable U.S. trade terms and international validation of its counterterrorism concerns—coincide with internal security deterioration as militants demonstrate technological sophistication and ethnic targeting capabilities. The Taliban's simultaneous legal isolation through ICC warrants and economic integration through regional infrastructure projects exemplifies how international law and realpolitik increasingly diverge.

Three structural tensions will shape the coming months:

As always, we strive to provide measured analysis while incorporating diverse perspectives on these complex regional dynamics. As great power competition intensifies and non-state actors adapt, the Afghanistan-Pakistan region remains where global security architectures confront their limits. Next week's Strategic Messaging edition decodes how state and non-state actors frame these contested realities.

Download the Durand Dispatch Perspectives (June/July) issue here.

Key Attacks, Military Operations & Border Security

Political Tensions and Peace Initiatives

Expanding Federal Powers

Civil Society Under Siege

Infrastructure Push: Gwadar Connectivity

Afghanistan-Pakistan Relations

International Criminal Court Arrest Warrants

The Art of the Deal: Pakistan's Strategic Win in Trump's Transactional Diplomacy

Spain's Salafist Purge & Europe's Growing ISKP Problem

The Resistance Front Proscription by the United States

Diplomatic and Economic Integration Initiatives

Pakistan's Diplomatic Engagements

International Humanitarian Discourse & Cooperation

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