In partnership with
Editor’s Note
Welcome to Durand Dispatch: Perspectives, our monthly newsletter offering insights into security and militancy trends across South and Central Asia—with a special focus on the Afghanistan-Pakistan region. Brought to you by a team of academics, security professionals, local journalists, and student researchers, this Dispatch brings you timely analysis informed by open-source intelligence, ground reporting, and expert insight.
Key developments in August underscored how traditional security paradigms are being reshaped by a convergence of climate vulnerabilities, technological adaptation by militant groups, and shifting great power competition. The intersection of natural disasters with ongoing militancy in the Afghanistan-Pakistan region further highlights the importance of governance capabilities for stability, beyond conventional counterterrorism. In terms of geopolitics, Washington executed a strategic reversal, moving away from its traditional partnership with India toward Pakistan through expanded energy deals, punitive tariffs on New Delhi, and the designation of the Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) as a Foreign Terrorist Organization. China deepened its trilateral integration strategy with Pakistan and Afghanistan, while positioning Central Asian states as key transit nodes. India, meanwhile, pursued strategic autonomy by balancing a long-delayed China visit with sustained Russian energy ties and engagement in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. On the ground, Pakistan’s airstrikes into Afghan territory and the Taliban’s reaction highlighted the persistence of cross-border frictions over militant sanctuaries, while civil unrest inside Pakistan—from Baloch Yakjehti Committee (BYC) sit-ins to jirga-led negotiations with militant factions—exposed widening gaps between federal militarization and grassroots peace initiatives. Taken together, these dynamics reveal that regional stability now hinges less on kinetic capacity alone and more on governance resilience, inclusive dialogue, and the ability of major powers to reconcile overlapping stabilization strategies.
Climate Disasters as Security Accelerants Pakistan and Afghanistan endured overlapping disasters that underscored the region’s acute vulnerability to climate-driven emergencies and seismic hazards. In Pakistan, monsoon flooding swept across multiple provinces. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa’s Buner District was the hardest hit, where flash floods and landslides caused hundreds of fatalities. Punjab faced its worst flooding in nearly four decades, affecting an estimated two million people and displacing hundreds of thousands. Alongside, a devastating earthquake struck Afghanistan, near the Pakistan border causing thousands of fatalities, and destroyed homes.
Militancy August witnessed deadly operations by Baloch militants, Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), and affiliated groups. The BLA launched coordinated and lethal attacks against security forces, including ambushes, improvised explosive device (IED) strikes, and simultaneous checkpoint assaults, while systematically targeting tribal elders to dismantle traditional leadership. In Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP), TTP escalated violence with drones, IEDs, and coordinated Independence Day attacks across multiple districts. Militants also attacked critical infrastructure, including pipelines and railways, and intensified urban plots, with Karachi raids uncovering TTP and Al-Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS) activity.
Cross-Border Dynamics: Coercion and Cooperation While ministerial diplomacy between Afghanistan and Pakistan advanced symbolically—with upgraded diplomatic ties and trilateral talks alongside China—fundamental rifts persisted over militant safe havens. The Taliban oscillated between offering mediation and tacit tolerance of the TTP, while Pakistan pursued a hybrid approach of drone strikes, diplomatic pressure, and appeals for economic cooperation.
Civil Unrest & Protests Protests and political mobilization intensified across Pakistan, fueled by military operations, displacement, and long-standing grievances. Demonstrations erupted in KP over civilian casualties and exclusion of displaced families from aid, with political parties like amplifying criticism of counterterrorism operations. The Pashtun Tahafuz Movement expanded protests against perceived state repression, while traditional jirgas in Bajaur and Tirah Valley sought localized agreements with TTP militants, producing uneven outcomes. In Balochistan, the Baloch Yakjehti Committee (BYC) sit-in over missing persons entered its second month, overlapping with communications blackouts imposed by the state to curb militant coordination.
Strategic Alignments and Transactional Diplomacy Washington’s strategic pivot crystallized when U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced expanded economic collaboration with Pakistan in critical minerals and hydrocarbons, while hitting India with higher tariffs. Pakistan secured lower tariffs on exports and increased U.S. investment in oil reserve development, while the designation of the Balochistan Liberation Army as a Foreign Terrorist Organization indicated renewed security cooperation. The U.S.-Pakistan Counterterrorism Dialogue in Islamabad specifically addressed countering the use of emerging technologies by terrorist groups, reflecting militants’ increasing use of commercial drones for attacks.
Regional Strategic Shifts Regional realignments materialized through concrete institutional mechanisms and economic instruments rather than abstract diplomatic rhetoric. China's efforts toward systematic integration of Afghanistan represents perhaps the most significant transformation, operationalized through the trilateral China-Pakistan-Afghanistan framework that extends the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) southward while positioning Beijing as Afghanistan's primary trading partner. Simultaneously, India's strategic autonomy emerges through calculated diplomatic choreography: Prime Minister Modi's first China visit in years, occurring alongside sustained Russian energy purchases despite U.S. tariff pressure reaching 50%, demonstrates New Delhi's capacity to maintain parallel relationships with competing powers. The Shanghai Cooperation Organization's evolution from consultative body to active security coordination mechanism reflects institutional adaptation to regional threats. These institutional transformations enable and legitimize what may be the most significant development: incremental normalization processes that gradually integrate previously isolated actors into regional frameworks. The Taliban's gradual acceptance into regional economic frameworks, Kyrgyzstan's memoranda of understanding with Afghanistan, and Central Asian states' positioning as critical transit nodes all represent the bureaucratic and commercial infrastructure through which abstract geopolitical concepts become operational realities on the ground.
Download the Durand Dispatch Perspectives (August) issue here.
How 433 Investors Unlocked 400X Return Potential
Institutional investors back startups to unlock outsized returns. Regular investors have to wait. But not anymore. Thanks to regulatory updates, some companies are doing things differently.
Take Revolut. In 2016, 433 regular people invested an average of $2,730. Today? They got a 400X buyout offer from the company, as Revolut’s valuation increased 89,900% in the same timeframe.
Founded by a former Zillow exec, Pacaso’s co-ownership tech reshapes the $1.3T vacation home market. They’ve earned $110M+ in gross profit to date, including 41% YoY growth in 2024 alone. They even reserved the Nasdaq ticker PCSO.
The same institutional investors behind Uber, Venmo, and eBay backed Pacaso. And you can join them. But not for long. Pacaso’s investment opportunity ends September 18.
Paid advertisement for Pacaso’s Regulation A offering. Read the offering circular at invest.pacaso.com. Reserving a ticker symbol is not a guarantee that the company will go public. Listing on the NASDAQ is subject to approvals.