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The coverage of the United States, Israel and Iran conflict has understandably focused on Tehran, the Strait of Hormuz, and the fate of a regional order built over decades. Less visible are two countries that share long borders with Iran and whose fortunes have been quietly but profoundly shaped by the war. Afghanistan, landlocked and now cut off from both its eastern and western trade corridors, faces a degree of economic isolation without precedent. Pakistan, navigating between its defense commitments to Saudi Arabia, a diplomatic channel to Washington, and an unresolved border war with Afghanistan, has emerged as an unlikely but fragile intermediary. This article examines what the Iran war means for both, and why the answer matters beyond the immediate theatre of conflict.
Encircled and Entangled: What the Iran War Means for Afghanistan and Pakistan
On February 28, 2026, the United States and Israel launched Operation Epic Fury, initiating what has become the most consequential Middle Eastern conflict since the Gulf Wars. U.S. and Israeli forces conducted hundreds of strikes in the first twelve hours alone, killing Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and triggering a regional escalation, well beyond Iran’s borders. Iran retaliated against Israel, U.S. bases across the Gulf, and even Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean, a joint U.S.-UK military base in the Indian Ocean..
In early March, the IRGC announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz to vessels from the United States, Israel, and their allies. Brent crude surpassed $100 per barrel for the first time in years, in what analysts have described as the largest energy supply disruption in modern history. By mid-March, Iran had enforced the closure through a combination of drone strikes, anti-ship missiles, and the withdrawal of maritime insurance coverage. Pakistan, despite attempting neutrality, faced mounting pressure from its mutual defense commitments to Saudi Arabia while simultaneously managing its volatile border with Afghanistan, where it had declared "open war" on the Taliban regime just days before the Iran conflict escalated.
For Afghanistan and Pakistan, two nations sharing long, porous borders with Iran, the war created an immediate strategic crisis, disrupting critical trade corridors, triggering refugee flows, and intensifying existing tensions along their shared frontier. Afghanistan's primary trade route through Iran — increasingly vital after escalating tensions closed the Pakistani border — became untenable as conflict engulfed Iranian border regions. Afghanistan had already absorbed millions of returnees in 2025. Additionally, the World Food Programme warned that millions of Afghans faced acute food insecurity, with millions of children projected to require treatment for malnutrition in 2026.
