Amira Jadoon & Colin P. Clarke | Published in East Asia Forum, 30 May 2026
In their latest analysis for East Asia Forum, Jadoon and Clarke examine how the fallout from the U.S.–Israel war on Iran is colliding with Balochistan — Pakistan's southwestern province bordering both Afghanistan and Iran — and what it means for US, Chinese, and Pakistani interests.
They argue the Iran conflict is not creating new instability so much as compounding existing drivers: separatist insurgency, jihadist expansion (notably Islamic State Khorasan), cross-border conflict with Afghanistan, collapsing fuel and trade flows, and the political marginalization of the Baloch. The same geography that holds critical mineral wealth — including the Reko Diq copper–gold reserve and the Gwadar port — is becoming an expanding base for militancy, threatening the very investments Washington, Beijing, and Islamabad are each counting on.
Read the full article here.
Catch up on our latest Strategic Messaging issue, our deep dive into how militant groups across the Afghanistan–Pakistan region craft and deploy their narratives, and other analysis.
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