Decoding Pakistan’s 2024 Airstrikes in Afghanistan

In December 2024, Pakistan conducted airstrikes in Afghanistan's Khost and Paktika provinces, targeting suspected Tehrik-i-Taliban (TTP) Pakistan strongholds. Against the backdrop of Pakistan's bloodiest year in a decade, rising terrorism, and volatile border tensions, this analysis examines a critical question: Why would Pakistan risk military escalation against Afghanistan at this precarious moment — amid overlapping political, economic, and security crises — and what does its contradictory pattern of alternating between negotiation and force reveal?

After decades of supporting the Taliban to secure "strategic depth," Pakistan now faces its most lethal domestic threat, the TTP, being sheltered by this same ally. Using the lens of bargaining theory, the article deconstructs how Pakistan has pivoted to hybrid coercion — combining precision airstrikes with economic leverage and diplomatic pressure — to recalibrate its bargaining position in a post-2021 landscape where its strategic leverage has fundamentally shifted. With the Afghan Taliban asserting greater autonomy and the TTP exploiting cross-border sanctuaries, Pakistan has turned to calculated coercive measures to increase the costs of supporting TTP for the Taliban, while simultaneously signaling resolve to the TTP itself.

In other words, Pakistan’s moves are aimed at reshaping the strategic calculus of both actors to achieve more favorable bargaining outcomes. This high-stakes strategic bargaining carries profound implications not only for Pakistan's stability but for U.S. counterterrorism interests and broader regional security.