Welcome to the The Durand Dispatch, a monthly review of recent security and militancy developments across the Afghanistan-Pakistan region. Using an analytical lens, this issue provides an overview of notable events that took place in March, 2025, highlighting security implications for the regional and international security. The month of March, unfortunately, saw the convergence of multiple security threats with deadly events coming to the fore such as the unprecedented Jaffar Express passenger train hijacking; the deployment of a female suicide attacker by Baloch separatists; and the Tehrik-i-Taliban’s continued attacks in settled districts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan. Our analysis extends to the temporary resolution of the standoff at Torkham border crossing , the contradictory signals in U.S.-Pakistan security relations, and the Afghan Taliban's release of American citizen George Glezmann. Additionally, this month's Ivory Edge feature analyzes how rebel groups leverage social media to shape narratives and build support, drawing on academic research to understand the effectiveness of their digital strategies.

As always, we strive to provide measured analysis while incorporating diverse perspectives on these complex regional dynamics.

• In the News: Regional & International Perspectives

• The Ivory Edge: Rebel Groups & Social Media Strategies

• Strategic Messaging: Key Messages & Narratives

• Miscellaneous: New Reports & Articles

Download the full issue here.

Regional 

• Female Suicide Bomber in Southwest Pakistan

• Balochistan Train Hijacking & Escalating Violence

• Crackdown on Baloch Protesters and Arrest of Mahrang Baloch

• Suicide Attack in Bannu

• Torkham Border Crossing Reopening

International 

• Afghanistan - Pakistan Threat Assessments

• Mixed Signals: US-Pakistan Security Collaboration Juxtaposed with Sanctions Bill

• Taliban Releases American Citizen in Unilateral Gesture Amid Trump-Led Diplomacy 

Rebel Groups and  Social Media: The New Battleground

Do militant groups' social media strategies translate to real-world influence? Can online engagement actually shift civilian perceptions and support for militant groups? In March 2025, the Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) executed a high-profile hijacking of the Jaffar Express passenger train in Balochistan, Pakistan holding hundreds of passengers hostage. Given its existing digital footprint, unsurprisingly, the BLA utilized social media platforms to unleash on online messaging campaign simultaneously. This included live updates, portraying the attack as an act of resistance against state oppression, aimed at garnering support among the Baloch youth, including women. The following day, BLA issued a formal ultimatum via Telegram, warning the government it had 24 hours to negotiate a prisoner exchange​. The BLA of course is not alone in pushing its grievance-driven narrative. Other groups like the TTP and Al-Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS) also continue with digital propaganda efforts, leveraging social media to amplify their narratives and challenge state authority. Given the the question remains: This emerging digital battlefield raises critical questions for security analysts and policymakers alike: Do militant groups' social media strategies translate to measurable real-world influence, and which messaging techniques most effectively shape civilian perceptions and mobilize potential supporters?

Featured Research

Bestvater, Samuel E., and Cyanne E. Loyle. "Messaging and mobilization: Rebel groups, social media communication, and audience engagement." Journal of Peace Research (2023)

Lessons for Pakistan’s Counterterrorism Strategy

1. Reassessment of Counter-Messaging

2. Monitoring Adaptation

3. Image-Based Strategy

4.  Legitimacy Contests

Tehrik-i-Taliban

• Al-Khandaq Operation 2025 - Spring Offensive 

• Strategic Positioning  Umar Media’s Video Featuring Noor Wali Mehsud

• Jaish Al-Fursan

Al-Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent

• AQIS releases a January/February edition of its magazine in 15^th March, Nawai Ghazwa-e-Hind.

Islamic State Khorasan Province

• Continued anti-Taliban campaign

Future Monitor

• Baloch Raji Aajoi Sangar (Baluch National Freedom Movement) 

• Harakat Inqilab Islami Pakistan (IIP)

Al- Mirsaad Messaging

• Assertions About the Arrest of Muhammad Sharif Jaffar

• Consistent messaging aimed at Legitimizing Taliban Governance

• Highlight Strained Afghanistan-Pakistan Relations

Official Reports

Afghanistan: Background and U.S. Policy, Congressional Research Service, March 7, 2025

Security & Governance

• Amin Kawa, Extrajudicial Torture and Killings of Citizens; Over 30 People Killed in Just Over a Month, 8AM, March 6, 2025

• Federal Judge Questions Timing of Termination of Resettlement Agency Contracts and Orders Government to Update Court on Restoration of Refugee Processing, International Refugee Assistance Project, March 4, 2025

• Afghanistan’s New National Health Policy (2025–2030): A Roadmap to a Healthier Future, World Health Organization, March 12, 2025

• World Health Organization EMR Polio Bulletin Issue No. 1379, Week 10 (ending on 09/03/2025), World Health Organization, March 11, 2025

• Interview with Taliban spokesman, Zabihullah Mujahid, Ariana News, March 5, 2025

• Afghan Citizen Card (ACC) Holders to leave Pakistan by March 31, 2025, Ministry of Interior, March 7, 2025.

• The United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) and Government of the People’s Republic of China Launch ‘Tailored Intelligence for Actionable Early Warning Systems’ Project to Strengthen Climate Resilience in Pakistan, UNDP, March 5, 2025

• Sharif Akram, Taliban Narratives (1) Books: “Who We Are and Why We Fought”, Afghanistan Analysts Network, March 16, 2025

• Fereshta Abbasi, Religious Freedom in Afghanistan: Three Years After the Taliban Takeover, Human Rights Watch, March 18, 2025

• Shivam Shekhawat & Puspa Kumari, Internal Rifts and External Threats: The Taliban’s Growing Crisis, Observer Research Foundation, March 24, 2025

• Rawadari Report, Afghanistan Human Rights Situation, March 19, 2025

Militancy & Extremism

• Institute for Economics & Peace, Global Terrorism Index 2025: Measuring the Impact of Terrorism, Sydney, March 5, 2025.

• Mona Thakkar, Riccardo Valle, & Sadaqah Jariyah, The Thriving Cryptocurrency Fundraising Efforts Behind ISKP’s Official Media, March 14, 2025

• The Current State of Islamist Terrorism in the UK, Pool Re Report,  March 12, 2025

• Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community,  Office of the Director of National Intelligence, March 2025