Welcome to the The Durand Dispatch, a monthly review of recent security and militancy developments across the Afghanistan-Pakistan region. Using an analytical lens, this issue provides an overview of notable events that took place in March, 2025, highlighting security implications for the regional and international security. The month of March, unfortunately, saw the convergence of multiple security threats with deadly events coming to the fore such as the unprecedented Jaffar Express passenger train hijacking; the deployment of a female suicide attacker by Baloch separatists; and the Tehrik-i-Taliban’s continued attacks in settled districts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan. Our analysis extends to the temporary resolution of the standoff at Torkham border crossing , the contradictory signals in U.S.-Pakistan security relations, and the Afghan Taliban's release of American citizen George Glezmann. Additionally, this month's Ivory Edge feature analyzes how rebel groups leverage social media to shape narratives and build support, drawing on academic research to understand the effectiveness of their digital strategies.

As always, we strive to provide measured analysis while incorporating diverse perspectives on these complex regional dynamics.

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Do militant groups' social media strategies translate to real-world influence? Can online engagement actually shift civilian perceptions and support for militant groups? In March 2025, the Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) executed a high-profile hijacking of the Jaffar Express passenger train in Balochistan, Pakistan holding hundreds of passengers hostage. Given its existing digital footprint, unsurprisingly, the BLA utilized social media platforms to unleash on online messaging campaign simultaneously. This included live updates, portraying the attack as an act of resistance against state oppression, aimed at garnering support among the Baloch youth, including women. The following day, BLA issued a formal ultimatum via Telegram, warning the government it had 24 hours to negotiate a prisoner exchange​. The BLA of course is not alone in pushing its grievance-driven narrative. Other groups like the TTP and Al-Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS) also continue with digital propaganda efforts, leveraging social media to amplify their narratives and challenge state authority. Given the the question remains: This emerging digital battlefield raises critical questions for security analysts and policymakers alike: Do militant groups' social media strategies translate to measurable real-world influence, and which messaging techniques most effectively shape civilian perceptions and mobilize potential supporters?

Bestvater, Samuel E., and Cyanne E. Loyle. "Messaging and mobilization: Rebel groups, social media communication, and audience engagement." Journal of Peace Research (2023)

Afghanistan: Background and U.S. Policy, Congressional Research Service, March 7, 2025