On February 6, 2026, a suicide bomber struck the Imambargah Qasr-e-Khadijatul Kubra in Tarlai Kalan on the outskirts of Islamabad during Friday prayers, killing over 30 people and injuring at least 169 others, according to preliminary reports. The attack marks the second major assault on Pakistan’s capital within months, signaling an escalating pattern of urban targeting by militant actors and raising critical questions about the trajectory of security dynamics in Pakistan.

Security personnel at the mosque gate intercepted the bomber before he could enter the main prayer hall, preventing what officials described as a potentially far greater catastrophe. Defence Minister Khawaja Asif stated that preliminary findings suggest the attacker had been travelling to and from Afghanistan, a detail that underscores the persistent cross-border dimensions of Pakistan’s security challenges.

The Attack and Immediate Aftermath

The explosion occurred during Friday prayers, when the Imambargah Qasr-e-Khadijatul Kubra was filled with Shia Muslim worshippers. Eyewitnesses described scenes of chaos and devastation, with bodies and debris scattered across the mosque’s grounds. According to Defence Minister Asif, security guards at the mosque attempted to stop the bomber at the entrance. Their intervention, though ultimately unable to prevent the attack entirely, limited the bomber’s access to the crowded main hall, likely reducing the casualty count. As of this writing, no group has officially claimed responsibility for the February 6 attack. 

Islamic State Khorasan Province: The Likely Perpetrator?

While no formal claim of responsibility has been made, multiple indicators point toward the Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP) as the likely perpetrator. ISKP has demonstrated resilience despite sustained leadership losses and has cultivated a particularly virulent focus on sectarian targeting of Shia Muslims in both Afghanistan and Pakistan. The specific characteristics of this attack—targeting a Shia religious site, the method (suicide bombing), and the location (an urban center)—strongly align with ISKP’s established operational doctrine and distinguish it from other militant actors in the region, including the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). Below, we summarize key elements which point to ISKP involvement.

For full analysis, see our full Strategic Messaging January 2026 issue.